Collingwood, Blue Mountains Real Estate Report June 2015

Overview: May Sales Set A New Georgian Triangle Monthly Record

Once again, Georgian Triangle real estate sales outpaced expectations in May, this time even setting a new monthly record of $78,832,935, eclipsing last June’s record of $78,094,349. In fact, nearly all of May’s key numbers remained incredibly robust within the context of the record 2015 market we’re enjoying. In addition, two very notable 2015 trends have shown no signs of letting up: first, there continues to be a surprising number of multiple offer situations; and, second, the number of homes for sale remains down considerably from 2014, such that the demand for listings still exceeds the supply.
Specifically, as Graph 1 shows, total MLS® dollar sales through May was $295.4 million, up

Graph 1: Georgian Triangle MLS® Sales – January To May,
2014 vs 2015 (Dollars)

27.6% over 2014’s sales of $231.4 million. And as Table 1 shows, 2015’s MLS® unit sales of 870 is up 19.7% over last year’s unit sales of 727. And yet, as noted the year-to-date listing inventory, at 2082, is down 14.4% from 2014’s figure of 2432. Lastly, the average sales price is up 6.7% over 2014, while 2015’s sales-to-listings ratio is actually up 42.5% over last year.
And now, from the Wonder Why Dept: How can it be that sales are at record levels, demand is high, prices are up, the sales-to-listings ratio is way up, but fewer people are listing homes???

With respect to the 6.7% increase in average sale price over 2014, it’s important to note that this increase includes the fact that unit sales have continued to increase dramatically at all price points, except two: under $100,000 (due to fewer homes being listed at that price) and $1.5 million-and-up. Given that sales are up at all prices except the low and high ends of the market – and especially given that they’re up 19.4% in the high-volume $100,000 to $499,000 range – it seems safe to say that the 6.7% average gain is indicative of the market as a whole.
As we do every month, we’ve consulted our resident market soothsayers and – as has been their way of late – they are smiling, but non-committal. However, they did submit again that the increasing and rather unheard-of demand for listings probably won’t last forever. J

By The Numbers

Just as they have been throughout 2015, May’s market gains translate accordingly into nearly all the details of Monthly Dollar Sales (see Graph 2), Monthly Units Sales (Graph 3), Single-Family Home Sales (Graph 4), and Sales by Property Type (Graph 5).

Graph 2: Georgian Triangle MLS® Sales – January To May,
2014 vs 2015 (Dollars)

2014 vs 2015 (Units)

And so, as Graph 2 and Graph 3 show, 2015’s monthly dollar volume and unit sales continue to be more or less correlative. However, while dollar sales are up 27.6% over 2014, units are only up 19.7% – a difference that continues to generally reflect 2015’s average sale price gains.
Regarding MLS® single-family home sales (see Graph 4), 2015’s year-to-date numbers are up 21.4% from that of 2014. And similar to last month’s year-to-date figures, each municipality was up except Grey Highlands (down 35.4%), while high-volume Wasaga Beach (up 41.3%) and Collingwood (up 26.1%) were responsible for most of the overall gains.
Lastly, as Graph 5 shows, Georgian Triangle condo sales are up 6.2% over 2014, albeit not as impressively as last month’s 26.2% year-to-date increase over 2014, or the momentous 50% increase of Q1-2015 over Q1-2014.

Again, as to whether 2015’s sales numbers will be sustained throughout the year as more and more people discover and take advantage of the Georgian Triangle’s four-season lifestyle and great value, we’ll have to see. Please stay tuned as we will regularly provide Georgian Triangle Market Reports in order to help you make better-informed real estate decisions.

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