Georgian Triangle Real Estate Market Report – January 1st to June 30th, 2015

Overview: Both June And Q2 Sales Set Georgian Triangle Records

Well, the extraordinary numbers just keep on keepin’ on . . .

The big news: the Georgian Triangle’s sales for June and Q2 set new monthly and quarterly milestones. June’s dollar volume of $89,117,146 topped the previous record of $78,832,935 – set in May – by no less than 13%. And Q2’s sales of $238,998,455 bested Q3-2014’s previous quarterly record of $221,517,087 by a healthy 7.9%. Further, as Graph 1 shows Q2’s numbers are way above those of the previous two Q2s: up 18.6% over 2014 and 42.5% over 2013.

Graph 1: Georgian Triangle MLS® Sales – 2nd Quarter,
2013 vs 2014 vs 2015 (Dollars)

As well, it goes without saying that 2015’s overall sales continue to astound. As Graph 2 shows, total MLS® dollar sales through June was $384.477,410, up 26.6% over 2014’s previous first-half record of $303,610,407. And yet, for reasons that have been unclear throughout 2015, the number of homes for sale in June continued to be down considerably from 2014, such that the demand for listings continues to exceed the supply.
In short, it’s still a hot sellers’ market.

Graph 2: Georgian Triangle MLS® Sales – January To June,
2013 vs 2014 vs 2015 (Dollars)

All that said, there has been one notable market change, likely due in part to the arrival of summer and all that there is to do here in the beautiful Georgian Triangle: the number of multiple offer situations slowed in June, which is not surprising given that the phenomenal pace we witnessed from January to May could not continue forever.

The Georgian Triangle Market In Detail

As Table 1 shows, June’s and 2015’s huge dollar sale figures translate almost right across the board in terms of the unit sale details. Overall MLS® unit sales of 1145 are up 20.3% over last year’s unit sales of 952. And yet, as noted the year-to-date listing inventory of 2517 is down 13.7% from 2014’s figure of 2917. Now, add to that the fact that the average sales price is up 5.3% over 2014 – while 2015’s sales-to-listings ratio is actually up 39.6% over last year – and we are once again faced with the puzzling question of: How can it be that sales continue to be at record levels, prices are up, demand for new listings remains high, the sales-to-listings ratio is higher than high, but fewer people are putting their homes on the market???

Table 1: Georgian Triangle MLS® – January to June,
Sales And Listing Summary, 2014 vs 2015

With respect to the 5.3% increase in average sale price over 2014, we must note again that this increase includes the fact that unit sales continue to increase dramatically at all price points, except two: under $100,000 (due to ever-fewer homes being listed at that price) and $1.5 million-and-up. So given that sales are up at all prices except the low and high ends of the market – and especially given that they’re up 20.2% in the high-volume $100,000 to $499,000 range – it is safe to say that the 5.3% average gain is indicative of the market as a whole.

And now, it’s that it’s once again to consult the crystal ball . . . Was June the Big Kahuna? Or might we be in for another record-breaking month and quarter in July and Q3, respectively? How long is the demand for listings going to so greatly exceed the supply – as it has for all of 2015? June’s noticeable reduction of multiple offer situations does seem to indicate a slight cooling of the sellers’ market, but it’s still hot. So if you’ve considering selling, well . . . !!

By The Numbers

Just as the primary sales data has throughout 2015, June’s overall market performance translates directly into nearly all the details of Monthly Dollar Sales (Graph 3), Monthly Units Sales (Graph 4), Single-Family Home Sales (Graph 5), and Sales by Property Type (Graph 6).

Graph 3: Georgian Triangle MLS® Sales – January To June,
2014 vs 2015 (Dollars)

Graph 4: Georgian Triangle MLS® Sales – January To June,
2014 vs 2015 (Units)

Graph 5: Georgian Triangle MLS® Sales – January To June,
Single-Family Home Sales By Municipality, 2014 vs 2015 (Units)

And so, as Graph 3 and Graph 4 show, 2015’s monthly dollar volume and unit sales continue to be more or less correlative. However, while dollar sales are up 26.6% over 2014, unit sales are only up 20.3% – a difference that generally reflects 2015’s 5.3% average sale price gain.

Regarding single-family home sales (Graph 5), 2015’s year-to-date numbers are up 16.6% from that of 2014. And similar to last month’s year-to-date figures, each municipality was up except Grey Highlands (down 11.8%), while high-volume Wasaga Beach (up 38.5%) and Collingwood (up 17.5%) were responsible for most of the overall gains.

Lastly, as Graph 6 shows, Georgian Triangle condo sales are up 14.6% over 2014, which represents a small surge over last month’s 6.2% year-to-date increase over 2014.

Again, as to whether 2015’s sales numbers will be sustained throughout the year as more and more people discover and take advantage of the Georgian Triangle’s four-season lifestyle and great value, we’ll have to see. Please stay tuned as we will regularly provide Georgian Triangle Market Reports in order to help you make better-informed real estate decisions.

Graph 6: Georgian Triangle MLS® Sales – January to May,
By Property Type, 2014 vs 2015 (Units)

Royal LePage Locations North In 2014 . . . and 2015

2014 was a record-breaking year for Royal LePage Locations North. We:

  • Broke the Georgian Triangle record for annual MLS sales: just under $122,000,000 (we’re the first and only area Brokerage to have ever surpassed $100,000,000)
  • Were #1 in each of our primary markets – Collingwood, The Blue Mountains, Thornbury and Meaford – as well as #1 in Luxury Property Sales

Additionally, our annual sales are up 130% from 2011 to 2014:

Not only that, but our first quarter sales of 2015 were 87% higher than that of 2014!
We couldn’t have done all this without the trust that our clients have placed in us. SO A BIG THANK-YOU to EVERYONE! We look forward to serving you when you decide to buy or sell.

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