October 2016 Collingwood – Blue Mountain Real Estate Market Update

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Overview: Biggest October Ever – YTD Sales Over $900 Million!

The pattern of robust sales, fewer listings and rising prices continued into October, the Georgian Triangle’s 31st consecutive record sales month.
Monthly dollar sales of $94,406,889 and units sales of 254 were up 21% and 8% respectively from 2015’s previous October’s highs of $78,033,768 and 235. With new listings down 7% and expired listings down 48% from last year, the month saw a superhigh 91% sales/listings ratio.
Turning to the year-to-date numbers, Graph 1 shows that 2016’s dollar sales of $906,794,825 are up 29% from 2015’s prior YTD record, and up 56% from 2014. And as Graph 2 shows, this year’s unit sales of 2439 are up 17% from last year’s prior YTD record of 2086, as well as up 34% from 2014’s 1816. Additionally, 2016’s record YTD sales/ listings ratio of 68% is up 15% from 2015, while the average sales price of $371,380 is up a solid 10% from this time last year.

Graph 1: Georgian Triangle MLS® Sales – January-October, 2014 vs 2015 vs 2016 (Dollars)


All these numbers – particularly October’s sales/listings ratio of 91% and the 10% average sales price increase – mean two things: the demand for listings still GREATLY exceeds the supply and sales would likely be even higher if there were more homes on the market.

Graph 2: Georgian Triangle Monthly MLS® Sales – January-October, 2014 vs 2015 vs 2016 (Units)


The Market In Detail

As Table 1 and Graph 3 show, 2016’s YTD numbers generally translate into all the market metrics for different price ranges.
While unit sales are down 3% in the $100K-$299K sales range, they’re up in all other ranges. The entire $300K+ range is up 38%, with particularly big gains of 51%, 40% and 150% in the $500K-$799K, $800K-$999K and $1.5M+ ranges respectively. Even sales in the under $100K price range – which have generally decreased with each passing year due to fewer and fewer homes being listed at that price – are currently up 26% from one year ago.


Graph 3: Georgian Triangle MLS® Sales By Price – January-October, 2015 vs 2016 (Units)


Looking now at Graphs 4 and 5 we see that October’s dollar and unit sales, while down from May’s and August’s highs, are up 21% and 8% respectively from 2015’s prior October records. That said, to put all of 2016’s increases in perspective, bear in mind that every month of 2015 was a regional record breaker in terms of both dollar and unit sales.

Graph 4: Georgian Triangle MLS® Sales – January-October, 2015 vs 2016 (Dollars)


Graph 5: Georgian Triangle MLS® Sales – January-October, 2015 vs 2016 (Units)



A Few More Numbers To Fill In The Picture

October’s market metrics also translate directly into the details of residential home sales by community (Graph 6) and by property type (Graph 7).

Graph 6: Georgian Triangle MLS® Residential Home Sales By Area – January-October, 2015 vs 2016 (Units)


Graph 7: Georgian Triangle MLS® Residential Home Sales By Type – January-October, 2015 vs 2016 (Units)


2016’s gains are mainly due to high-volume Wasaga Beach’s 21% increase and Grey Highlands’ impressive market rebound, up 33% from its slow 2015 sales. Additionally, Clearview, The Blue Mountains, Meaford and Collingwood are up 20%, 14%, 12% and 5% respectively. Lastly, the entire region’s single-family homes sales for 2016 are up 14% from 2015, while condo sales are up 16% and vacant land sales are up a big 48%.

The Takeaway

Ever since June, when Georgian Triangle MLS sales surpassed $500 Million for the first half of 2016, we have been musing upon whether the sales pace could be sustained such that the region would have its first $1 Billion year. Well, with each record-breaking month since it has become increasingly clear that unless some unexpected macroeconomic event befalls us, we will reach that great milestone – perhaps even by the end of November.
That said, we are once again left with the question of how long this unusual combination of record sales, steadily rising prices and fewer homes on the market can continue. Although the Canadian economy has slowed throughout much of 2016, the demographics which have been driving home sales here in this beautiful region remain strong.
As we reflect on both the great summer and colourful autumn we’ve enjoyed, as well as look forward hopefully to a wonderful ski season, we’ll once again repeat our oft-repeated refrain: It’s a fantastic time to be a home seller here in the Georgian Triangle. So if you’ve considered selling your home your chances of getting a great price in a timely manner are excellent. 
As to whether 2016’s record sales will be sustained throughout the year as more and more people discover and take advantage of the Georgian Triangle’s four-season lifestyle and great value, only time will tell. Please stay tuned as we regularly provide our Georgian Triangle Market Reports in order to help you make better-informed, real estate decisions.


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